Radar on Medicare Advantage

As Medicare Advantage insurers contemplate 2025 bids in an unfavorable funding environment, select firms that reported first-quarter 2024 earnings at press time indicated their preference for margin recovery versus growth and the likelihood of service area/benefit reductions next year. 

For the quarter ending March 31, 2024, CVS Health on May 1 reported consolidated revenues of $88.4 billion, reflecting year-over-year revenue growth of 3.7% that would have been larger if not for a decline in the Health Services segment. Meanwhile, first quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) dropped from $2.12 [or $2.20?] a year ago to $1.31, which the company attributed to utilization pressure in the Health Care Benefits segment’s MA business. That segment’s medical loss ratio (MLR) was 90.4%, compared with 84.6% in the prior-year quarter, while higher-than-expected medical costs of approximately $900 million — primarily driven by MA — were due to seasonal factors or items specific to the quarter, the company clarified.

For Medicaid-focused insurers facing the headwinds of the post-pandemic disenrollment backlog, a contract win can cause a major sigh of relief. That’s particularly true for Centene Corp., the largest managed Medicaid insurer in the U.S., which held onto three state contracts in Michigan, New Hampshire and Florida in recent months. Shares of Centene were up 3.5% following its April 12 win in Florida, where it currently serves 1.46 million members, according to AIS’s Directory of Health Plans (DHP).

Awards from Kansas and Georgia — where Centene is an incumbent — are expected to be announced in the coming weeks. Texas, meanwhile, is in the middle of a procurement process that could mean a plan switch for about 1.8 million beneficiaries. And it could spell the end of Centene’s winning streak. CEO Sarah London at the Barclays Global Healthcare Conference, held in March, said the company was “disappointed” in the scoring of its most recent Texas proposal, and planned to protest any contract loss. “I would say the biggest concern for the program overall is the idea that the results are going to force 1.8 million Medicaid members in Texas, which is a state that has a very high choice rate, to choose a different place,” London continued.

Amid concerns about utilization trends, a disappointing final rate notice, “headwinds” has been the dominant buzz word in Medicare Advantage for months. To gain a better understanding of the cost-containment levers MAOs can pull in the face of cost pressures, AIS Health, a division of MMIT, spoke with AArete Managing Director Paul Schuhmacher. In his work with the global management and technology consulting firm, Schuhmacher co-leads the payer practice, which supports approximately 120 plans across the U.S. 

Editor’s note: This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

As Medicare Advantage and Part D sponsors prepare their bids for 2025 amid revenue challenges, benefit cuts and other changes that plans are contemplating to maintain margins will undoubtedly trickle down to Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) and other entities that take risk in MA. As a result, risk-bearing providers should be asking tough questions of their plan partners and conducting internal analyses to understand where their revenue stands to be impacted, according to value-based care experts.   

From the transition to v28 — the new version of the Part C CMS-Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) model that will make it harder for plans and providers to apply more codes for risk adjustment — to increased inpatient utilization, a -0.16% drop in MA plans’ base pay and other changes, risk-bearing providers are bracing for a “perfect storm” of events in MA that will require preparation, said Zach Davis, a Wakely actuary who helps ACOs manage insurance risk, during a LinkedIn Live session recorded on April 24.  

Janssen Pharmaceutical Cos. and Bristol Myers Squibb Co. failed to convince a district court judge that the Inflation Reduction Act’s drug price negotiation program violates the drug industry’s First Amendment rights, the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment or the Unconstitutional Conditions Doctrine, per a summary judgement issued in favor of the government 29 April.

The opinion from Judge Zahid Quaraishi of the United States District Court in the District of New Jersey, adds to the list of industry’s legal arguments that have failed to successfully challenge the law. BMS already has appealed the judgement.